Emphasizing major energy and economic implications, a new International Energy Agency (IEA) report identifies vulnerabilities over the next decade, notably for copper and other critical minerals.
The 2025 edition of the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook finds that critical mineral markets have become more concentrated, not less, particularly when it comes to refining and processing. For copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements, IEA said the average market share of the top three producers rose to 86% in 2024 from around 82% in 2020, with almost all supply growth coming from the single top supplier: Indonesia for nickel, and China for all other minerals.
“In a world of high geopolitical tensions, critical minerals have emerged as a frontline issue in safeguarding global energy and economic security,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This new analysis reviews what is at stake and what needs to be done to improve the resilience and diversity of critical mineral supply chains – a key concern for ensuring the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in the 21st century.”
While policymakers have woken up to the challenges, a detailed IEA analysis of announced projects indicates that progress toward more diversified critical mineral supply chains is set to be slow. Based on policy and investment trends, the average share of the top three suppliers is projected to decline only marginally over the next decade, effectively returning to the concentration levels seen in 2020.
“Even in a well-supplied market, critical mineral supply chains can be highly vulnerable to supply shocks, be they from extreme weather, a technical failure or trade disruptions,” Birol said. “The impact of a supply shock can be far-reaching, bringing higher prices for consumers and reducing industrial competitiveness.”
The entire report can be viewed here.
Source: IEA