A study co-led by the University of Michigan says copper needs to cost about twice as much as it currently does to incentivize companies to develop new mines. It found that the copper needed even just to sustain typical economic and population growth far exceeds the amount of copper currently mined.
The researchers, who include Adam Simon of University of Michigan, Lawrence Cathles of Cornell University and Daniel Wood of the University of Queensland, modeled how much copper is necessary to carry on “business-as-usual” population growth and standard of living increases. They found for business as usual, about 1,100 million metric tons of copper needs to be mined by 2050. Companies only mined about 23 million metric tons of copper in 2024.
“The world needs more and more and more copper for business-as-usual economic development, and that creates tension. We suggest that the demand for copper for economic development, which is in essence global human development, should take priority over various electrification scenarios,” Simon said.
The researchers noted that recycling copper has grown over the past several years. If it continues to grow at the current rate of 0.53% per year until 2050, recycling will contribute about 13.5 million metric tons of copper in 2050, a little more than a third of what is required to meet business-as-usual demands.
“Copper: Mining, Development, and Electrification” was published in SEG Discovery and can be viewed here.
Source: University of Michigan